Ahmednagar Forgings

Recommendation: Book Out
Current market price: Rs203

Book out

Result highlights

*
The Q2FY2008 results of Ahmednagar Forgings Ltd (AFL) are below our estimates.
*
The company's sales for the quarter grew by only 8.8% to Rs165.8 crore. The domestic sales remained flat at Rs111 crore and the export sales grew by 30% to Rs54 crore. The export revenues were flat on a quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) basis.
*
The operating profit margin (OPM) has been maintained at 20.6%. As a result, the operating profit grew by 8.5% to Rs34.2 crore. Higher interest and depreciation costs led the profit after tax (PAT) to remain flat at Rs17.7 crore.
*
The ramp up in exports is not happening, as expected. There has been a delay in product approvals for exports. The domestic revenues are also not growing due to a slowdown in the domestic market.
*
AFL is making preferential allotment of 17 lakh shares and 38 lakh warrants to its promoters at a price of Rs240, thereby raising Rs132 crore. The funds will be used in buying assets such as forging lines. The preferential allotment would lead to an equity dilution of 16%. The resolution to raise money through debt of Rs2,000 crore has also been cleared.
*
Slow ramp up in exports, slow down in domestic market and 16% equity dilution would be a dampener on AFL's performance. We downgrade our earning estimates for FY2008 and FY2009 by 25% to Rs16.3 and Rs20.6 respectively. At the current market price of Rs203, the stock is trading at 9.9x its FY2009E earnings and is available at an enterprise value (EV)/earnings before interest, depreciation, tax and amortisation (EBIDTA) of 6.0x. We advise investors to Book out of the stock.